Here Comes the Sun (Belt)

Happy Tuesday all! I hope you’re keeping your cool. Summer…that escalated quickly!

The Cobbs recently completed our annual beach week. Now a few days removed, I can say that it’s hard to beat a roadtrip to the Gulf. The landscape, the culture, the crying turned laughter now back to crying as you tick down 14-hour car ride with your family…CORE MEMORIES PEOPLE!

We hit some classics this year. Little Rock, Memphis, Tupelo, Montgomery, Birmingham (what a pretty city!) and whole heckuva lot of rural Florida. It’s truly a striking experience. IYKYK.

Our kids are 11 and 14 and the discussions continue to get more interesting. We actually have fun talking about what makes a city tick. “How big is this city? What do people do here?”

A road trip is a real time A/B test of growing or shrinking, thriving or wilting, have or have not. The data is spread out before you on the blacktop, ticking by your window to a rhythm of row crops and power lines - a dashboard doctorate in social science.

It’s a real time A/B test of growing or shrinking, thriving or wilting, have or have not.

While this route doesn’t reflect it, “Sun Belt” states have seen remarkable economic development over the past few decades.  Business and talent has flocked to these states for the pro-business regulatory environment and traditional community ethos. It’s driven economic growth, population increases, and cultural development.

However, road signs indicate challenges, present and future, that could threaten momentum. That talented workforce will age. Poor educational and healthcare infrastructure create difficult family decisions. Low civic engagement lessens the opportunity to affect change. The tide is rising and boats are lifting. There a lot of folks still overboard, and room on the ship may be limited.

None of this is breaking news, but worthy of attention, discussion, and action.

Factors Driving Economic Growth in the Sunbelt

Population Growth

The Sun Belt is growing significantly. People are attracted to its (mostly)favorable climate, lower cost of living, and abundant job opportunities. Rapid population increases fuel economic expansion as new residents demand housing, goods, and services.

Business-Friendly Environment

A business-friendly environment with lower taxes, fewer regulations, and incentives for relocation or expansion sets the table for investment, entrepreneurship, and job creation.

Diverse Economic Base

Once primarily reliant on agriculture and manufacturing, we know have strong sectors in technology, healthcare, finance, and tourism. This diversification makes us more resilient to economic fluctuations.

Quality of Life

Quality of life is a significant factor in attracting and retaining both businesses and residents. A moderate climate, affordable housing, and recreational opportunities make these areas an attractive place to live.

Impact of Economic Growth

Real Estate Boom

Rapid population growth has led to a booming real estate market. While this growth brings economic benefits, it also presents challenges such as housing affordability and sprawl.

Job Creation and Income Growth

Economic expansion has resulted in significant job creation and income growth. This job growth helps to reduce unemployment rates and boost overall economic prosperity but work must continue to close the skills gap.

Cultural and Demographic Shifts

The influx of new residents leads to cultural and demographic shifts, enriching the community landscape by contributing to a vibrant arts scene, diverse culinary offerings, and social fabric. This necessitates adjustments in infrastructure, education, and public services to meet the needs of a changing population. 

A Closer Look at Arkansas

Arkansas ranks 12th in net new people and 15th in net new Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) gained, right behind Utah and ahead of Colorado.  

Other notable states, listed by college football cheer and respective AGI, below:

  • Go Gators - #1

  • Hook ‘em Horns -# 2

  • Rocky Top  - #5

  • Sorry South Carolina but I don’t know your cheer nor do I care to learn it (that screechy rooster noise?)  You’re just gonna be SC - #6

  • Hunker Down Hairy Dawgs - #7

  • Boomer Sooner  - #10

  • Roll Tide  - #11

    (Top to Bottom = FL, TX, TN, SC, GA, OK, AL)

Population Decline in Rural Areas

Metro areas like Northwest Arkansas, Central Arkansas, and Northeast Arkansas are growing while rural areas are stagnant or declining. This uneven economic development feeds social polarization and limits statewide economic potential. Revitalizing rural economies and equipping smaller city leadership is essential for balanced growth.

Educational Attainment and Workforce Skills

A less educated workforce deters high-tech industries, knowledge-based sectors and advanced manufacturing investment in the state. Continuing to invest in Improving education and training programs is critical.

Healthcare Access and Public Health

Limited access to healthcare, particularly in rural areas, affects the overall well-being and productivity of the population. Public health challenges increase healthcare costs and reduce the attractiveness of the state to talent and businesses.

The Road Ahead

To sustain economic growth and address these threats, states in the Sunbelt region can consider the following strategies:

Invest in Infrastructure: Upgrade transportation, water systems, and public services to support growing populations and economic activities.

Promote Sustainable Development: Balance economic growth with environmental conservation to protect natural resources and maintain quality of life.

Enhance Education and Training: Invest in education and workforce development to create a skilled labor force that attracts diverse industries.

Address Housing Affordability: Develop policies and programs to ensure affordable housing options for all income levels.

The Pact

I believe in Arkansas. Business leaders, community builders, and elected officials are investing in improvement. Let us embrace endurance. We will continue to convene thought leaders and change makers across the state, from the corner office to the community clinic.

I don’t have the answers, I don’t even have all the questions. I’ll simply address that classic road-trip inquiry.

“Are we there yet?”

No.

Building the best Arkansas takes all of us. That means you. It’s your job to make sure your organization is at the table. Otherwise, it’s on the menu.

Need a partner, a pal, a shepherd or a sherpa to share the load, maximize your output, and build capacity? 

Paceline Strategies is here for you. 

Graham / Founder, CEO

When things get hot, just be cool.
Apalachicola, FL

I used to think that this was my town…
what stupid thing to think

- Jason Isbell
on collective community